大巴灵顿宣言:世界顶尖传染病流行病和公共卫生专家反对再次封锁!请加入签名!
发布于 2021-09-20 19:04
从2020年10月4日起，此宣言在麻省大巴灵顿签署以来，已经有14,981名医学和公共卫生科学家、44,167位医务工作者及80多万公众签名。
人人可以签名：
https://gbdeclaration.org/
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02:00:20
Video: Focused Protection Vs. Lockdowns
作为传染病流行病学家和公共卫生科学家，我们对现行的COVID-19政策对身体和精神健康的破坏性影响感到严重关切，并推荐一种称为重点保护法。
我们来自世界各地，既有自由派，也有保守派。我们的职业都是致力于保护大众。当前的封锁政策无论在短期还是长期，都对公共健康产生了破坏性影响。结果是，儿童接种率降低、心血管疾病恶化、癌症筛查减少和心理健康恶化，这些都会导致未来几年更高的死亡率，也会让工薪阶层和年轻人成为负担最重的群体。并且让学生不能在学校上学是非常不公平的。
如果到有疫苗才终止这些措施，将造成无法弥补的损失，而贫困人口受到的伤害则尤其严重。
幸运的是，我们对病毒的了解日益增多。我们知道，老年人和体弱者的COVID-19死亡率比年轻人高一千倍。而且，COVID-19的危险性对于儿童来说更是低于其他很多危害，包括流感。
随着人们的免疫力增强，所有人（包括弱势群体）的感染风险都会下降。我们知道，所有人群最终都将获得群体免疫力——即新感染率保持稳定——这可以通过疫苗，但并不依赖于疫苗，来协助取得。因此，在我们获得群体免疫之前，我们的目标应该是尽量减少死亡率和对社会的伤害。
最富有同情心的做法是，平衡群体免疫的风险和利益，也就是说，使死亡风险最小的人正常生活，让他们通过自然感染增强对病毒的免疫力，同时加强保护处于高风险的人，我们称之为重点保护。
采取措施保护弱势群体应该是应对COVID-19的公共卫生措施的主要目标。举例来说，疗养院应使用具有获得免疫力的员工，并对其他员工和所有来访者进行频繁的PCR测试。人员轮换应尽量减少。在家居住的退休人员应让别人把杂货和其他必需品送到家里。他们应该尽可能地在室外而不是在室内与家人见面。可以列一个全面详尽的措施清单，包括针对多代家庭的方法，并且这些措施完全是公共卫生专业人员能做到的。
那些非高危人群应立即被允许恢复正常生活。每个人都应采取简单的卫生措施，例如勤洗手和生病时在家休息，以降低群体免疫的门槛。学校和大学应该进行面对面的教学并恢复课外活动，例如体育运动。低风险的年轻人应该正常工作，而不是在家工作。餐馆和其他商家应开业。应该恢复艺术、音乐、体育和其他文化活动。高风险人群可以根据自己的意愿参与这些活动，而建立了群体免疫力的人可以去照顾弱势群体，这样整个社会都会享有健康保护。
该声明于2020年10月4日，在美国大巴灵顿，由以下人员撰写并签署：
Dr. Martin Kulldorff, 哈佛大学医学教授、生物统计学家、流行病学家，在检测和监测传染病暴发和疫苗安全性评估方面具有专业知识。
Dr. Sunetra Gupta, 牛津大学教授、流行病学家，在免疫学、疫苗开发和传染病数学建模方面具有专业知识。
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, 斯坦福大学医学院教授、医师、流行病学家、卫生经济学家和公共卫生政策专家，主要研究传染病和弱势群体。
Dr. Rajiv Bhatia: 美国退伍军人管理局医师，流行病学家和公共政策专家
Dr. Stephen Bremner: 英国萨塞克斯大学医学统计学教授
Dr. Anthony J Brookes: 英国莱斯特大学遗传学教授
Dr. Helen Colhoun: 苏格兰爱丁堡大学医学信息学和流行病学教授兼公共卫生医师
Dr. Angus Dalgleish: 肿瘤学家，传染病专家，英国伦敦大学圣乔治医院医学院教授
Dr. Sylvia Fogel: 美国麻萨诸塞州综合医院自闭症专家和精神病医生，美国哈佛医学院讲师
Dr. Eitan Friedman：以色列特拉维夫大学医学教授
Dr. Uri Gavish: 以色列生物医学顾问
Dr. Motti Gerlic: 以色列特拉维夫大学临床微生物学和免疫学教授
Dr. Gabriela Gomes: 研究传染病流行病学的数学家，苏格兰斯特拉斯克莱德大学教授
Dr. Mike Hulme: 英格兰剑桥大学人文地理学教授
Dr. Michael Jackson: 新西兰坎特伯雷大学生物科学学院研究员
Dr. Annie Janvier: 加拿大蒙特利尔大学和圣尤斯汀大学医学中心儿科和临床伦理学教授
Dr. David Katz: True Health Initiative的医师兼总裁，美国耶鲁大学预防研究中心的创始人
Dr. Andrius Kavaliunas: 瑞典卡罗林斯卡研究所流行病学兼助理教授
Dr. Laura Lazzeroni: 美国斯坦福大学医学院精神病学，行为科学和生物医学数据科学教授
Dr. Michael Levitt: 美国斯坦福大学生物物理学家兼结构生物学教授。
2013年诺贝尔化学奖获得者。
Dr. David Livermore: 微生物学家，传染病流行病学家兼英格兰东安格利亚大学教授
Dr. Jonas Ludvigsson: Karolinska研究所儿科医生，流行病学家兼教授，瑞典厄勒布鲁大学医院高级医师
Dr. Paul McKeigue: 医师，疾病建模师，苏格兰爱丁堡大学流行病学和公共卫生教授
Dr. Cody Meissner: 儿科教授，疫苗开发，功效和安全性专家。美国塔夫茨大学医学院
Dr. Ariel Munitz: 以色列特拉维夫大学临床微生物学和免疫学教授
Dr. Yaz Gulnur Muradoglu: 英国伦敦玛丽皇后大学金融学教授，行为金融工作组主任
Dr. Partha P. Majumder: 印度卡利亚尼国家生物医学基因组学研究所教授兼创始人
Dr. Udi Qimron: 以色列特拉维夫大学临床微生物学和免疫学教授
Dr. Matthew Ratcliffe: 英国约克大学哲学教授，专攻心理健康哲学
Dr. Mario Recker: 英国埃克塞特大学疟疾研究员兼副教授
Dr. Eyal Shahar: 美国亚利桑那大学医师，流行病学家和公共卫生教授（名誉教授）
Dr. Karol Sikora: 英国白金汉大学的医师，肿瘤学家和医学教授
Dr. Matthew Strauss: 加拿大皇后大学重症监护医师和医学助理教授
Dr. Rodney Sturdivant: 美国贝勒大学传染病科学家，生物统计学副教授
Dr. Simon Thornley: 新西兰奥克兰大学流行病学家和生物统计学家
Dr. Ellen Townsend: 心理学教授，英国诺丁汉大学自我伤害研究小组负责人
Dr. Lisa White: 英国牛津大学建模与流行病学教授
Dr. Simon Wood: 苏格兰爱丁堡大学生物统计学家兼教授
欢迎您签名
https://gbdeclaration.org/ （请粘贴至浏览器打开）
02:00:20
The Great Barrington Declaration
As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists we have grave concerns about the damaging physical and mental health impacts of the prevailing COVID-19 policies, and recommend an approach we call Focused Protection.
Coming from both the left and right, and around the world, we have devoted our careers to protecting people. Current lockdown policies are producing devastating effects on short and long-term public health. The results (to name a few) include lower childhood vaccination rates, worsening cardiovascular disease outcomes, fewer cancer screenings and deteriorating mental health – leading to greater excess mortality in years to come, with the working class and younger members of society carrying the heaviest burden. Keeping students out of school is a grave injustice.
Keeping these measures in place until a vaccine is available will cause irreparable damage, with the underprivileged disproportionately harmed.
Fortunately, our understanding of the virus is growing. We know that vulnerability to death from COVID-19 is more than a thousand-fold higher in the old and infirm than the young. Indeed, for children, COVID-19 is less dangerous than many other harms, including influenza.
As immunity builds in the population, the risk of infection to all – including the vulnerable – falls. We know that all populations will eventually reach herd immunity – i.e. the point at which the rate of new infections is stable – and that this can be assisted by (but is not dependent upon) a vaccine. Our goal should therefore be to minimize mortality and social harm until we reach herd immunity.
The most compassionate approach that balances the risks and benefits of reaching herd immunity, is to allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk. We call this Focused Protection.
Adopting measures to protect the vulnerable should be the central aim of public health responses to COVID-19. By way of example, nursing homes should use staff with acquired immunity and perform frequent PCR testing of other staff and all visitors. Staff rotation should be minimized. Retired people living at home should have groceries and other essentials delivered to their home. When possible, they should meet family members outside rather than inside. A comprehensive and detailed list of measures, including approaches to multi-generational households, can be implemented, and is well within the scope and capability of public health professionals.
Those who are not vulnerable should immediately be allowed to resume life as normal. Simple hygiene measures, such as hand washing and staying home when sick should be practiced by everyone to reduce the herd immunity threshold. Schools and universities should be open for in-person teaching. Extracurricular activities, such as sports, should be resumed. Young low-risk adults should work normally, rather than from home. Restaurants and other businesses should open. Arts, music, sport and other cultural activities should resume. People who are more at risk may participate if they wish, while society as a whole enjoys the protection conferred upon the vulnerable by those who have built up herd immunity.
On October 4, 2020, this declaration was authored and signed in Great Barrington, United States, by:
Dr. Martin Kulldorff, professor of medicine at Harvard University, a biostatistician, and epidemiologist with expertise in detecting and monitoring of infectious disease outbreaks and vaccine safety evaluations.
Dr. Sunetra Gupta, professor at Oxford University, an epidemiologist with expertise in immunology, vaccine development, and mathematical modeling of infectious diseases.
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, professor at Stanford University Medical School, a physician, epidemiologist, health economist, and public health policy expert focusing on infectious diseases and vulnerable populations.
SIGN THE DECLARATION：https://gbdeclaration.org/
Co-signers
Medical and Public Health Scientists
and Medical Practitioners
Dr. Rajiv Bhatia, physician, epidemiologist and public policy expert at the Veterans Administration, USA
Dr. Stephen Bremner,professor of medical statistics, University of Sussex, England
Dr. Anthony J Brookes, professor of genetics, University of Leicester, England
Dr. Helen Colhoun, ,professor of medical informatics and epidemiology, and public health physician, University of Edinburgh, Scotland
Dr. Angus Dalgleish, oncologist, infectious disease expert and professor, St. George’s Hospital Medical School, University of London, England
Dr. Sylvia Fogel, autism expert and psychiatrist at Massachusetts General Hospital and instructor at Harvard Medical School, USA
Dr. Eitan Friedman, professor of medicine, Tel-Aviv University, Israel
Dr. Uri Gavish, biomedical consultant, Israel
Dr. Motti Gerlic, professor of clinical microbiology and immunology, Tel Aviv University, Israel
Dr. Gabriela Gomes, mathematician studying infectious disease epidemiology, professor, University of Strathclyde, Scotland
Dr. Mike Hulme, professor of human geography, University of Cambridge, England
Dr. Michael Jackson, research fellow, School of Biological Sciences, University of Canterbury, New Zealand
Dr. Annie Janvier, professor of pediatrics and clinical ethics, Université de Montréal and Sainte-Justine University Medical Centre, Canada
Dr. David Katz, physician and president, True Health Initiative, and founder of the Yale University Prevention Research Center, USA
Dr. Andrius Kavaliunas, epidemiologist and assistant professor at Karolinska Institute, Sweden
Dr. Laura Lazzeroni, professor of psychiatry and behavioral sciences and of biomedical data science, Stanford University Medical School, USA
Dr. Michael Levitt, biophysicist and professor of structural biology, Stanford University, USA.
Recipient of the 2013 Nobel Prize in Chemistry.
Dr. David Livermore, microbiologist, infectious disease epidemiologist and professor, University of East Anglia, England
Dr. Jonas Ludvigsson, pediatrician, epidemiologist and professor at Karolinska Institute and senior physician at Örebro University Hospital, Sweden
Dr. Paul McKeigue, physician, disease modeler and professor of epidemiology and public health, University of Edinburgh, Scotland
Dr. Cody Meissner, professor of pediatrics, expert on vaccine development, efficacy, and safety. Tufts University School of Medicine, USA
Dr. Ariel Munitz, professor of clinical microbiology and immunology, Tel Aviv University, Israel
Dr. Yaz Gulnur Muradoglu, professor of finance, director of the Behavioural Finance Working Group, Queen Mary University of London, England
Dr. Partha P. Majumder, professor and founder of the National Institute of Biomedical Genomics, Kalyani, India
Dr. Udi Qimron, professor of clinical microbiology and immunology, Tel Aviv University, Israel
Dr. Matthew Ratcliffe, professor of philosophy, specializing in philosophy of mental health, University of York, England
Dr. Mario Recker, malaria researcher and associate professor, University of Exeter, England
Dr. Eyal Shahar, physician, epidemiologist and professor (emeritus) of public health, University of Arizona, USA
Dr. Karol Sikora MA, physician, oncologist, and professor of medicine at the University of Buckingham, England
Dr. Matthew Strauss, critical care physician and assistant professor of medicine, Queen’s University, Canada
Dr. Rodney Sturdivant, infectious disease scientist and associate professor of biostatistics, Baylor University, USA
Dr. Simon Thornley, epidemiologist and biostatistician, University of Auckland, New Zealand
Dr. Ellen Townsend, professor of psychology, head of the Self-Harm Research Group, University of Nottingham, England
Dr. Lisa White, professor of modelling and epidemiology, Oxford University, England
Dr. Simon Wood, biostatistician and professor, University of Edinburgh, Scotland
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