外刊 3 感受热度-新兴市场政策制定者努力应对不断上升的通货膨胀 | 精讲精练

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Feeling the heat

感受热度

Emerging-market policymakers grapple with rising inflation

新兴市场政策制定者努力应对不断上升的通货膨胀

It has been a long few months for the emerging world. Punishing temperatures fanned fires on Turkey’s Mediterranean shores and scorched Russia’s wheat fields. Covid-19 rages across countries with low vaccination rates. On top of everything else, inflation is running hot, too.

对新兴国家而言，这几个月无比漫长。酷热导致土耳其地中海沿岸燃起熊熊大火，也烧焦了俄罗斯的麦田。新冠疫情在疫苗接种率低的国家肆虐。此外，通货膨胀也在不断升温。

Soaring food and energy prices have pushed inflation to uncomfortably high levels. In Brazil consumer prices are 9% higher than they were a year ago, more than twice the central bank’s target. In Russia inflation is 6.5%, well above the central bank’s aim of 4%. Inflation in India, which had been high in 2020, rose above 6% this summer—north of the Reserve Bank’s target range. 

飙升的粮价和能源价格已将通胀推高至令人不安的水平。巴西的消费者价格较去年同比上涨9%，是央行预期的两倍以上。俄罗斯的通胀率达到6.5%，远高于央行4%的目标。印度的通胀水平在2020年就一直居高不下，今年夏天更是升至6%以上，超出印度储备银行目标区间。（Dracarys）

Reserve Bank 印度储备银行(RBI)作为印度的中央银行,负责管理国家的货币政策并持有储备货币。

go north / go south

Growth has mostly resumed, despite the continued ravages of covid-19. In parts of the emerging world, such as India, output has already regained its pre-pandemic level. In others, such as Russia, it is expected to do so by the end of the year. Soaring prices for oil, metals and agricultural products have been a boon for commodity exporters. But recoveries have been frustratingly uneven. Better times for export industries have not always translated into broader labour-market recovery. Business is booming in Brazil’s mining towns, for instance, but the unemployment rate across the country, at 14.6%, has scarcely declined from its pandemic peak.

尽管疫情仍在肆虐，但经济增长已基本恢复。在印度等部分新兴国家，产出已恢复到疫情前的水平。在俄罗斯等其他国家，产出有望在今年年底恢复到疫情前的水平。石油、金属和农产品价格不断飙升，给出口商带来了好处。但经济复苏不平衡，令人沮丧。出口行业的好转并不总会带来更广泛的劳动力市场的复苏。例如，巴西的采矿小镇生意兴隆，但全国失业率高达14.6%，而这一比例自巴西疫情高峰期以来几乎没有下降过。（肥猫）

That, in turn, has placed pressure on governments to extend or even increase spending on relief programmes. Economic growth is boosting tax revenues in many countries, improving the public finances that were battered by covid-19. Still, fiscal deficits remain large. A decision in June to expand grain handouts means that India’s central government is likely to borrow more than the 6.8% of gdp expected in the budget for the 2022 fiscal year. Brazil, which borrowed an eye-watering 13.4% of gdp last year, has extended its emergency cash transfers. 

这反过来又给政府带来了压力，迫使它们扩大甚至增加救济计划的支出。经济增长提高了许多国家的税收收入，改善了受疫情严重打击的公共财政。不过，财政赤字依然庞大。今年6月，印度政府决定扩大粮食发放，这意味着印度中央政府的借款规模可能会超过2022财年预算中预计GDP 6.8%的水平。巴西去年借入了占GDP 13.4%的巨额贷款，扩大了紧急现金转移支付。

eye-watering 惨不忍睹的,难以想象的

转移支付：是指政府或企业无偿地支付给个人以增加其收入和购买力的费用。如社会保险福利津贴、抚恤金、养老金、失业补助、救济金以及各种补助费等；农产品价格补贴也是政府的转移支付。

实物转移支付是指直接向人们提供提高生活水平所需的某些物品与劳务；现金转移支付是指直接向人们支付现金进行补贴。

When you combine more money flowing through the economy with supply disruptions, though, the result is inflationary pressure. Emerging-market central bankers, like their rich-world counterparts, argue that high inflation is merely temporary. But, unlike their advanced-economy peers, some have not felt comfortable enough to wait and see. They have more recent experience of bouts of high inflation, and doubt that public expectations of low inflation are as firmly anchored as in rich countries.

但若将更多的流通货币与供应中断相结合，就会造成通胀压力。新兴市场的央行行长们和发达国家的央行行长们一样，认为高通胀只是暂时的。但是，与发达经济体的同行们不同，一些人并没有足够的耐心来等待和观望。他们最近经历了更多的高通胀，并且怀疑公众对低通胀的预期不如富裕国家坚定。（Dracarys）

suspect—怀疑这事是真的

doubt—怀疑这事不是真的

They have thus moved forcefully to rein in inflation. Brazil’s central bank raised interest rates by a full percentage point on August 4th, on top of three increases of 0.75 percentage points each since March. The Central Bank of Russia also announced a full-point rise on July 23rd, also its fourth of the year. Other central banks that have held fire are expected to tighten in coming months. 

因此，他们采取了强有力的措施来遏制通货膨胀。自3月份以来，巴西央行已三次上调利率，每次上调0.75个百分点，8月4日，巴西央行将利率提高了整整一个百分点。俄罗斯中央银行也在7月23日宣布加息1个百分点，这也是今年的第4次加息。其他未采取行动的央行预计将在未来几个月收紧货币政策。

hold fire 不采取行动；停火

But higher interest rates are tough medicine at home. Large increases pose a risk to growth. Slower growth in turn hurts the public coffers, even as higher interest rates raise governments’ borrowing costs. Among the large emerging economies, the risk of a crisis is perhaps most palpable in Brazil, where a loss of confidence in the public finances contributed to a deep recession in 2015 and 2016. If the fiscal risk premium that bond-buyers demand continues to rise, then the government may soon face a terrible choice between slashing spending while unemployment remains high and a full-blown fiscal crisis. 

但在国内，高利率并非良药。利率大幅上升给经济增长带来了风险，而经济增长放缓反过来又会损害公共财政，同时，高利率提高了政府的借贷成本。在大型新兴经济体中，巴西遭受危机的风险可能最为突出，在2015年和2016年，由于公共财政失信，巴西经济严重衰退。如果债券购买者所要求的财政风险溢价继续上升，政府可能很快就会面临艰难抉择，要么在失业率居高不下的情况下削减开支，要么爆发全面的财政危机。

even as: at the same time as

bond: 债券是政府、企业、银行等债务人为筹集资金,按照法定程序发行并向债权人承诺于指定日期还本付息的有价证券。（VS securities 证券）

risk premium: 风险溢价。对于风险资产，投资者要求较高的投资收益从而对不确定性作出补偿，这种超出无风险收益率之上的必要收益率补偿，就是风险溢价

债券风险溢价：投资者购买债券，均预期所给予的回报率会高于银行存款，因为购买公司的债券要承担风险。由于额外承担风险而要求的额外回报，就是“债券风险溢价”。

Recent woes only make the inflation problem starker—and at risk of spilling over to other countries. A severe drought in Brazil has reduced the capacity of its hydroelectric plants and sent energy prices soaring. It also threatens the production of export crops like coffee, leading to reduced supplies and higher prices. Low levels of the Paraná river have forced firms like Vale, a mining company, to reduce the loads of iron ore being carried on barges, causing global shortages. Russia’s government is taxing wheat shipments abroad, contributing to higher prices worldwide.

最近的灾难只会使通胀问题更加突出，且有可能蔓延到其他国家。巴西严重的干旱导致其水力发电厂的产能下降，能源价格飙升。这场干旱还威胁到咖啡等出口作物的生产，导致其供应减少、价格上涨。由于巴拉那河（Paraná）水位较低，淡水河谷(Vale，一家矿业公司)等公司不得不减少驳船上铁矿石的装载量，从而导致全球铁矿石短缺。俄罗斯政府对小麦出口征税，导致全球小麦价格上涨。

The fever could break later in the year, as bottlenecks ease and as demand from America and China cools a little. Yet there is also a risk of new disruptions: fresh outbreaks of covid-19, more natural disasters or social unrest, perhaps related to higher food prices. And for exporters like Brazil, softer commodity prices bring their own problems, such as a tumbling currency and an economic slowdown. A turn for the worse in one country could sour investor sentiment towards other places. Emerging markets have handled the economic strains of the past 18 moths with fortitude. But a break in the heat cannot come soon enough.

随着瓶颈期得到缓解，来自中美两国的需求又有所下降，这股热潮可能会在今年晚些时候结束。但我们仍可能面临新的问题: 新冠疫情再次爆发、更多自然灾害或社会动荡，这可能与粮食价格上涨相关。对巴西这样的出口国来说，商品价格走软也给其带来了问题，比如货币贬值和经济放缓。一个国家的情况恶化，可能会影响投资者对其他国家的信心。新兴市场在过去18个月里坚忍不拔，成功抗住了经济压力。但这股热潮还是散得越快越好。

cannot… too/enough 无论怎么……也不过分……，越……越好

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