2018年开始的中美贸易战与2020年的新冠病毒全球性爆发，确保全球供应链的开放、稳定、安全，建立一个能够承受意想不到的破坏并从中迅速恢复、具有弹性的系统，成了全球的热点。The Great Supply Chain Disruption is a central element of the extraordinary uncertainty that continues to frame economic prospects worldwide. If the shortages persist well into next year, that could advance rising prices on a range of commodities. As central banks from the United States to Australia debate the appropriate level of concern about inflation, they must consider a question none can answer with full confidence: Are the shortages and delays merely temporary mishaps accompanying the resumption of business, or something more insidious that could last well into next year?全球经济前景中继续存在着异常的不确定性，“供应链大混乱”是这种不确定性的核心因素。如果短缺一直持续到明年，有可能会推动一系列大宗商品的价格上涨。从美国到澳大利亚的中央银行都在讨论对通货膨胀的适当程度时，它们必须考虑一个没有人可以完全自信回答的问题：短缺和延迟只是随着商业复苏而出现的短暂问题，还是可能会持续到明年的更严重隐患？In March, as global shipping prices spiked and as many goods became scarce, conventional wisdom had it that the trouble was largely the result of a surplus of orders reflecting extraordinary shifts in demand. Consumers in the United States and other wealthy countries had taken pandemic lockdowns as the impetus to add gaming consoles and exercise bikes to their homes, swamping the shipping industry with cargo, and exhausting the supplies of many components. After a few months, many assumed, factories would catch up with demand, and ships would work through the backlog. That is not what happened.今年3月，随着全球航运成本飙升，许多商品变得稀缺，传统观点曾认为，这个问题在很大程度上是订单过剩的结果，反映的是需求的异常变化。美国和其他富裕国家的消费者被新冠大流行限制在家中，驱使他们为家里添购游戏机和健身自行车，导致大批集装箱让航运业应接不暇，也导致许多零部件的供应耗尽。许多人曾认为，几个月后，工厂生产会赶上需求，货船也会把积压下来的货物运完。这并没有发生。The world has gained a painful lesson in how interconnected economies are across vast distances, with delay and shortages in any one place rippling out nearly everywhere.世界已经从距离遥远但相互联系的经济体中吸取了惨痛的教训，任何一个地方的货物延迟和短缺都会影响几乎每个地方。A shipping container that cannot be unloaded in Los Angeles because too many dock workers are in quarantine is a container that cannot be loaded with soybeans in Iowa, leaving buyers in Indonesia waiting, and potentially triggering a shortage of animal feed in Southeast Asia. An unexpected jump in orders for televisions in Canada or Japan exacerbates the shortage of computer chips, forcing auto manufacturers to slow production lines from South Korea to Germany to Brazil.由于太多的码头工人被隔离，运到洛杉矶的集装箱无法卸货，导致爱荷华州的大豆不能装箱，因此印度尼西亚的买家只能干等，于是可能引发东南亚动物饲料的短缺。加拿大或日本的电视机订单的意外增长，加剧了计算机芯片的短缺，迫使汽车制造商放慢从韩国到德国再到巴西的生产线生产速度。“There is no end in sight,” said Alan Holland, chief executive of Keelvar, a company based in Cork, Ireland, that makes software used to manage supply chains. “Everybody should be assuming we are going to have an extended period of disruptions.”“看不到结束的时间，”总部位于爱尔兰科克的Keelvar公司首席执行官艾伦·霍兰德说，这家公司生产用于管理供应链的软件。“每个人都应该假设，我们将面临一段较长的混乱期。”本文节选自：The New York Times（纽约时报）
发布时间：2021.08.30
作者：Peter S. Goodman and Keith Bradsher
原文标题：The World Is Still Short of Everything. Get Used to It.
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