RCR新文:评价综合大气污染控制政策交互效应的多因素环境经济分析模型

发布于 2021-10-18 08:46

原文链接

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921344921004912

图片来源于网络（侵删）

文章导读

关于SO2、NOX和粉尘对社会经济环境影响的综合分析，很少有研究是通过综合分析它们对社会经济环境的影响来进行的。以往研究中的个体效应和交互效应造成的影响主要集中在单一的系统绩效上，对详细说明环境和经济响应的综合效应的研究还不够深入。此外，以前还没有关于多个省/部门减排努力的综合社会经济影响的环境经济学研究报告。为多个省的多个部门所做的这种努力可能彼此之间存在着巨大的互动关系。有效反映这些问题对于支持对由此产生的社会经济和环境影响进行有力分析至关重要。因此，本研究的目的是建立一个多因素的环境经济分析模型(MFEA)，用于评估综合大气污染控制政策对中国各省和部门的社会经济和环境影响的交互影响。具体而言，这项研究需要：(1)通过探索各种减排情景之间的相互作用关系及其对社会经济系统的复合影响，发展多因素有限元分析；(2)通过PBA和CBA量化SO2、NOX和粉尘的排放水平，并确定省级和部门减排政策的关键组合；(3)从经济和环境角度研究污染物排放的驱动力，通过结构分解分析揭示主要的污染贡献者。

原文摘要

图1.以生产和消费为基础核算的各省二氧化硫、氮氧化物和粉尘排放量。

图2.以生产和消费为基础的核算产生的二氧化硫、氮氧化物和粉尘的分部排放量

图3.临界驱动力引起的排放动态变化

图4.省和部门因素对经济和环境绩效的主要影响

图5.省和部门因素对变量R和a的交互作用。注：(A)和(B)表示省因素对变量R和a的交互作用，(C)和(D)表示部门因素对变量R和a的交互影响

原文信息

ABSTRACT

With the over exploitation and utilization of natural resources especially fossil energy, environmental degradation caused by such activities have been drawn much attention due to their adverse impacts on economic loss and related health burden. Air pollution has become one of the most intractable environmental issues despite a multitude of air pollution control policies were set to mitigate air pollutant emissions. In this study, a multi- factorial enviro-economic analysis model is developed to assess the interactive effects of combined air pollution control policies at provincial and sectoral levels of China. Specifically, twelve emission-mitigation scenarios are set based on various air pollution (i.e. SO2, NOX, and dust emissions) control policies that aims at reducing the pollution to 10 to 30% in critical provinces/sectors. This model is developed through exploration of the interactive relationships among these scenarios and their compound impacts on the socio-economic systems at provincial and sectoral levels. It is found that the increase of economic activities and population stimulate substantial emissions in spite of the decline of emission intensity. Evidence suggests that the interaction exits among various provincial and sectoral factors when consider their effects on systematic robustness and efficiency. On the contrary, individual effects from these factors dominate the system in terms of final demand and integral flow. Moreover, the factors with substantial emissions are not likely have huge contribution to the final demand and integral flow.

本期编辑

李阳，中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院团委副书记、博士研究生。